murat can's new betting blog
hi, again. i just wanted to open a new blog, instead of continuing with the old one (http://mcege.blogabet.com), since I stopped it for a long time. There'll be analysis about the picks and I won't limit myself with a sport type range, since this blog is kinda experiment for me, for some future betting projects.
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Fenerbahce - Kasimpasa
Friday, March 21st, 2008 19:00
Soccer - Turkey


Pick:  Over 3   Result: Pending
Stake:  7/10   Odds:  1.94
Bookmaker:  10bet   vCash: No  
Posted: Mar 21, 2008, 15:17

Fenerbahce will miss goalie Volkan, Roberto Carlos and back up player Deniz Baris. Roberto Carlos may seem to be the only irreplacable player from that list, but his wisdom and experience are not deadly needed at local fixtures.

Kasimpasa is a pressure free team and impressed in recent weeks. They simply have bunch of unknown players, who try to proove themselves to stay in the top league, even if the team will probably relegate, at the end.

Kasimpasa had a very defensive formation against Galatasaray, few weeks ago, but it wouldn't make sense to compare Fenerbahce's individual talents with Galatasaray's, even if Kasimpasa will defend till end, I don't think, if Fenerbahce will hard times to score and when they score a couple, hopefully early goals, I don't see any reason for Kasimpasa's eager, young players to stick their game plans and discipline.

I can't decide on asians, but this offer from 10bet convinced me to take with medium-high stakes.






Montepaschi Siena - Efes Pilsen    -7
Wednesday, March 19th, 2008 20:15
Basketball - Euroleague


Pick:  Montepaschi Siena (-13.5)   Result: 80 - 67
Stake:  7/10   Odds:  1.91
Bookmaker:  10bet   vCash: No  
Posted: Mar 19, 2008, 00:47

Efes Pilsen is a club, which doesn't deserve those lines, under any kind of circumstances and there has been lots of examples of it, in the past. But, because of all those things happened during the season and coach Blatt still seems not to find his rhythm yet, Efes seems vulnerable. There will be no game at the weekend in Turkey, due to All Star organization and this game has no rational importance for the team, so I don't think that the Americans, which represent most of the remaining quality will not feel like, they have to overperform.

After the departure of the Americans, Blatt forced to use some local players more and the players except Ermal Kuqo, simply lack quality at the offensive end and when Siena's defensive approach considered to be one of the bests, I can see Efes struggling a lot at offense.

This is a must win game for Siena to avoid Tau in the next round and they so far showed several times that they could've beat Efes Pilsen, even if all the circumstances were against them.

These lines can seem to be a little exaggerated, since this is a top 16 game and all teams deserved to be here, but Efes lacks quality, for sure to survive here and besides, qualitywise advantages, Siena also has the motivational edge, which leads me to a confident win by the hosts.






Genclerbirligi - Galatasary    +10.85
Wednesday, March 19th, 2008 19:00
Soccer - Turkey


Pick:  Genclerbirligi (+0)   Result: 1 - 0
Stake:  7/10   Odds:  2.55
Bookmaker:  Fonbet   vCash: No  
Posted: Mar 19, 2008, 00:19

First of all, sorry for the disastrous sunday at lower and top leagues, in local footie.

Visitors will miss Hakan Sukur, Mehmet Topal, Lincoln, Song and few others due to injuries and Umit Karan, who is at the top form, lately will miss this game because of the suspension. This list is just too much, even if there exists a big gap between the big three clubs and small clubs, at qualitywise.

Besides, Galatasaray will not have the manager Feldkamp, once again, since he didn't return from Germany, yet and as I explained at weekend preview, I don't think that assistant manager Akcan has sufficient ability to motivate the team and win the game.

Genclerbirligi will miss central defender Traore, who is not an irreplacable guy, for sure. This bet absolutely depends on the missings of the visitors, but Genclerbirligi also has abilities to cause problems with bunch of pacey attackers and skilled central midfielders.

Middle-high stakes are recommended, since Galatasaray absolutely will be happy with a draw and doesn't have the needed quality to win this game, at the end.






Gran Canaria - Galatasaray   0
Tuesday, March 18th, 2008 21:30
Basketball - Uleb Cup


Pick:  Galatasaray (+9)   Result: 88 - 79
Stake:  7/10   Odds:  1.99
Bookmaker:  Pinnacle   vCash: No  
Posted: Mar 18, 2008, 01:59

I don't have any idea that what did Canaria do to deserve these lines. I mean, I know that they had a terrible travel to Istanbul and they were absolutely tired during the game, Galatasaray shot unbelievable and Canaria is a good team, when playing at home, but when I compare the squads of teams, I don't see Galatasaray chances to be fewer than %30-35 to win this game, since the margin from the first game shouldn't be promising for the hosts. If Galatasaray can keep the game tight, during the first half and which doesn't seem to be that hard to do, then those odds definitely represent value for me. Also, keep in mind that there doesn't any game at weekend in the domestic competition, so the visitors will be motivated enough for this historical game for the club.








Kasimpasa - Buyuksehir    -5
Sunday, March 16th, 2008 12:30
Soccer - Turkey


Pick:  Over 2.5   Result: 1 - 0
Stake:  5/10   Odds:  2.20
Bookmaker:  10bet   vCash: No  
Posted: Mar 16, 2008, 02:27

Great offer by 10bet, which obviously deserves a medium bet. Kasimpasa, after losing logical chances to survive started to play a more offensive game and they create numerous goal positions, in recent games. They lack some quality at finishing department, but it won't last till the end of the season, for sure.

New transfers Ibrahim Akin and Necati Ates seem to settle their new roles at the club, which seems to increase their offensive power. Also, Istanbul Belediye is not that underish team anymore, since their defense is not that strong, like the beginning of the season.

My fair price for an over is nothing more than 2.10, so I'll spend some units for this offer.






Denizli - Gaziantep    -5
Sunday, March 16th, 2008 12:30
Soccer - Turkey


Pick:  Gaziantep (+0)   Result: 2 - 1
Stake:  5/10   Odds:  2.20
Bookmaker:  Fonbet   vCash: No  
Posted: Mar 16, 2008, 02:26

Denizlispor was very lucky lately, by not losing at Kayseri and winning against Ankaraspor. It's weird that they still talk about avoiding the relegation, rather than climbing up at the table, on the other hand, Gaziantepspor is one of the best performing teams, after the arrival of the manager, Nurullah Saglam. I guess, Denizlispor, which'll miss the most important player, team captain Yusuf Simsek is a great opponent to grab all points against, for a team in a must win situation.






Konya - Fenerbahce    +7
Sunday, March 16th, 2008 14:00
Soccer - Turkey


Pick:  Fenerbahce   Result: 1 - 4
Stake:  10/10   Odds:  1.70
Bookmaker:  Centrebet   vCash: No  
Posted: Mar 16, 2008, 02:24

Konyaspor sinks without a trace, lately. They have a terrible defense to cope with all individual talents of Fenerbahce, who didn't have a midweek fixture, after a long time and were very in form, last week against Manisaspor and at the same time, Zico has the ideal formation, with 2 defensive midfielders, which should limit Konyaspor's initially very limited scoring chances. Anything different than an away win will be one of the biggest suprises of this season, I think.






Antalya BSB - Efes Pilsen    -5
Sunday, March 16th, 2008 13:30
Basketball - Turkey


Pick:  Antalya BSB ML   Result: 77 - 82
Stake:  5/10   Odds:  2.37
Bookmaker:  Bet365   vCash: No  
Posted: Mar 16, 2008, 01:22

Despite being a newcomer, as being a team who so far beat the teams like Fenerbahce, Turk Telekom (twice) and Galatasaray, at home, I guess bet365's offer for the hosts deserve some medium stakes, against Efes Pilsen, with very limited rotation, busy schedule and low morales, due to a humiliating loss against Partizan at home and the end of the European adventure. Also, the most dangerous men to destroy those bets at local games, Ermal Kuqo and Ender Arslan seemed to be totally out of form, against Partizan.






Alpella - Oyak    +6.93
Sunday, March 16th, 2008 13:30
Basketball - Turkey


Pick:  Oyak (+4)   Result: 60 - 65
Stake:  7/10   Odds:  1.99
Bookmaker:  Pinnacle   vCash: No  
Posted: Mar 16, 2008, 01:05

Both teams have the intensity to keep the games tight, both are underish teams and especially the visitors will always prefer a slow tempo, which makes hard to cover minus handicaps against them. This is arguably the most crucial game of the weekend and I should say, I'm very suprised with that line. I expect a very even game and a fight till last mins. Even if, there exists some runs at some periods, I don't think, neither of teams will have a relishing advantage till the last minutes. Renault, which is the better team so far, in the second half of the season will not let hosts to harm their hopes about avoiding the relegation easily, I guess.






Gaziantep BB - Samsun    +5.81
Sunday, March 16th, 2008 12:00
Soccer - Turkey


Pick:  Over 2.5   Result: 1 - 2
Stake:  7/10   Odds:  1.83
Bookmaker:  Pinnacle   vCash: No  
Posted: Mar 16, 2008, 00:46

I'm also satisfied with this offer from pinnacle, since the average is under 1.70. I don't expect any spirited performance from the visitors and especialy with a fairly quick goal, this can become one of the easiest bets to follow. 3-0 is my call. I'll not use strong stakes, since over/under bets deserve some cautious attitude, according to my betting principles.






Gaziantep BB - Samsun    -8
Sunday, March 16th, 2008 12:00
Soccer - Turkey


Pick:  Gaziantep BB (-0.5)   Result: 1 - 2
Stake:  8/10   Odds:  1.83
Bookmaker:  Pinnacle   vCash: No  
Posted: Mar 16, 2008, 00:42

Here seems to be a public bet at Turkey. Public bets simply don't gain any confidence at lower leagues, but this seems to be a very reasonable one. It has few to do with hosts' late good performances and latest great result against vulnerable Istanbulspor. This bet based to the problems of Samsunspor. At the midweek, whole players told in a press conference that they no more want their director and whole board to be in charge, since they didn't take a single cent, for 6 months and nobody from board, or the manager of the team didn't make any interview, to slam the players. In that kind of an atmosphere, I don't believe that a team can achieve anything, at all. Hosts are motivated to secure their ticket for the next season and Samsunspor is a great opponent to do that, nowadays.






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Name:  murat can e.
Location:  istanbul
Betting:  Part-time
 
Statistics
 
Picks: 152 
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Win rate: 51% 
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